Probability and the Law of Large Numbers

Lesson Plan for Grades 4-7
  • SAVE TO FOLDER
  • Share |

Resource Produced by:

WNET

Collection Developed by:

WNET

Collection Credits

Collection Funded by:

U.S. Department of Education

Funding for the VITAL/Ready to Teach collection was secured through the United States Department of Education under the Ready to Teach Program.


open Connections

Everyday Math (2004)
Teacher Lesson Guide, pp. 104-109, 876-882
Student Reference, pp. 47, 58, 109, 119, 121-124
Math Journal, pp. 43-45, 410-413
Math Master, pp. 16, 168-169, 232, 367

Investigations/Scott Foresman (2006)
Between Never and Always (complete)
Data: Kids, Cats, and Ads (complete)
Investigation 3, Sessions 1-4, pp. 44-67
Investigation 4, Sessions 1-3, pp. 68-81

Printer Friendly Version of Connections Print Connections

open Standards

 
to:

Loading Content Loading Standards

open Comments and Reviews

Not yet reviewed.

Overview

This Cyberchase activity addresses a common misconception that a phenomenon whose probability is 50:50 should alternate outcomes during trials. It gradually presents the law of large numbers by beginning with 4 trials, 10 trials, and 350 trials, and showing that the results get closer and closer to 50%. The activity is motivated by a Cyberchase For Real episode on making a decision about what movie to attend.

Grade Level:

4-7

Suggested Time

1 hour

Media Resources

When Does 50-50 Become 50-50? QuickTime Video

Materials

Handout: Coin Flipping and More Flipping
Assessment: Level A
Assessment: Level B
Answer Key

The Lesson

Part I: Part I: Learning Activity

1. Distribute the Handout: Coin Flipping and More Flipping .

2. Tell the students that they will watch a video of Bianca doing an experiment.

3. As they watch the video clip, ask the students to make a record of each experiment Bianca does and to complete the first part of the handout.

4. Show the When Does 50-50 Become 50-50? QuickTime Video .

5. Ask the students to complete parts 2 and 3 of handout.

6. Discuss with students the results of the handout.

Part II: Part II: Assessment

Assessment: Level A (proficiency): Students are given the results of a survey of children's after-school activities, and are asked to predict from the survey how many of their classmates (out of 12) would be involved in a particular activity after school.

Assessment: Level B (above proficiency): Students are provided with results from 4 different experiments with different sample sizes, and are asked to determine which experiment's results are likely to be the most accurate.